Why I support the Great Nicobar Project

One of my fondest memories of childhood is the holday we had as a family to Andaman and Nicobar Islands. Looking back, I think that trip did a lot to spark my interest in geography, history, and geopolitics. I asked questions like - why does the water look so different here? Why was it only part of India occupied by the Japanese in World war two? And I was surprised ot know that the closest country to India by the sea is Indonesia not Sri Lanka.

I always wondered why had we not developed the islands more? I was happy when the Great Nicobar project was announced by the government and wanted to list a few points why I support it. 

About the project

• India plans to develop a deep water trans shipment port, an international airport, an urban development to support the man power for both and a power plant to serve all of the above infrastructure. 
• What is trans shipment- Modern trade is moving to a point where cargo is moved in ever larger ships. This helps as large cargo can be moved on the same vessel thereby reducing overall cost. However, these ships can only berth at deep-water ports. To get to other ports, cargo from these ships is unloaded and then loaded to smaller ships who then take it other ports in the area. 
• The Great Nicobar project should not be looked at purely as a real estate project in isolation. The significance of the project cuts across economics, security, geopolitics, ability to project power and development needs of the country and the region. 

Economic Angle

• India is the most populous country in the world and the fourth largest economy which has aspirations to get to developed status. This means increase in its trade with the world. 
• India sits astride major shipping lanes that pass through the Indian Ocean. Whether the cargo has to move from Middle East, East Asia, Africa, it has to pass by a major sea lane close to India. 
• However nearly 75% of the goods transhipped to India are transhipped by ports outside India. Colombo, Sri Lanka and Port klang constitue 85% of this transhipment. This is because of having very few deep water ports in India.
• India loses the ability to charge port fees, birthing fees and other revenues which gets captured by other ports for the trade with India. 
• ASEAN, China and East Asian countries are important cogs in supply chain for electronics, chemicals and rare earth - the main building blocks of the twenty first century. As the trade grows, there is a need to add capacity in the ports. Great Nicobar can provide capacity at an affordable cost as existing ports reach capacity.

Security Angle

• China is a neighbour, competitor and an adversary with an unresolved border with India. It has multiple times tried to flex its muscle and occupy territory on India's northern borders. Malacca strate is a key chokepoint for China where a majority of their trade and energy flows pass through.
• The Malacca strait and the dependence China has on it has made them nervous since decades.While they have tried to derisk it, it is still a major artery for their economic growth
• If Chinese Navy has to come into the Indian Ocean in case of a conflict, it would have to sail through the strait of Malacca to enter. 
• Having presence in Malacca would let Indian Navy deter and dissuade the adversary from taking any unilateral action against the interest of India.
• Even at top speed, it would take Indian navy a days to reach Malacca if it saild from Vishakapatnam while only a few hours sailing from great Nicobar. 
• Capabilities take ecades to build, intentions can change in seconds. We need to have the infrastructure to support our ambitions.

Geo Politics

• India has traditionally been the first responder in crises to the countries of the region. Having facilities, capabilities and resources lets India respond much faster for humanitarian causes. This is an important element of India's soft power.
• Great Nocobar is not only aimed at India but at the countries in the Bay of Bengal region and Andamand sea providing transhipment facilities to India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Thailand and Indonesia.

And now to answer some of the questions raised

Q1: Why is Great Nicobar needed when Vizhinjam is already there?

˘Vizhinjam is aimed at the trade happening in India's south west coast. India trade from its western cost is aimed at USA, Europe, Middle East and Africa. Vizhinjam is a great initiative but India's rise and aspirations require multiple deep water ports. Great Nicobar project fulfils this need and is a major deep water trans shipment hub from India's trade in the east.

Q2: Why not upgrade Chennai, Calcutta, Vishakapatnam and Paradip ports?

Those ports should be updated and disilted to increase capacity. However modern trade requires not just birthing areas but also land to support cargo, warehouses and cold chains. In most cases cities have grown around these ports leading to contraint in terms of land availability. Great Nicobar project provides the full infrastructure to provide the port needed to meet India's aspirations and needs of the twenty first century.

Q3: What about the tribes who will be affected?

It is the duty of the sovereign to protect rights, interest and way of life of their citizens. The question of tribes is a sensitive one and should be approached with honesty and care gicing due respect to their rights, customs and way of life. 

The government has claimed in the parliament that no displacement of any tribe will take place. The land will be clearly demarcated so no conflict takes place. There are safegaurds built in India's Forest Rights act which is an extremely stringent act which includes penal action for violation of rights. In a formal democracy a statement is parliament is not a rhetoric, it is the government's accountable position. Critics are free to challenge it but should do so with evidence.

India has had a long experience and has been a model in land aquisition providing benefits and sharing the same with communities for development of infrastructure projects. 

India is not starting from zero in dealing with tribes. There has been a long history of respectful contact only made when allowed by the tribes while taking cognisance  their wishes, as has been seen in the case of Dr. kar's work with Jarawas.

Q4: What about deforestation, which will happen?

The project spans 130 sq km and about 9.74 lakh trees would be cut. This is the cost paid in terms of ecology. Deforestation question is real, and it should not be dismissed. A tropical forest is unique and cannot be replaced by planting trees elsewhere.

But the existence of ecological cost does not automatically settle policy questions. The most important question is whether the creation of national asset justifies the bounded and mitigated cost?In my view a Malacca facing airport-port- logistics hub is exceptional category. A resort or a real estate project wouldnot be a martime port is different. 

Q5: Why build such a large project? Why not build smaller and protect the environment?

The project is not being built for needs of today. It is being built for needs and aspirations of India of tomorrow. Even if we grow at a modest rate of 5% our trade will become 10 times in next 50 years. We need to build capacity to support this growth and development. The project will be built over 30 years and the plan is how we develop it for the next 30 years after that. 

The Great Nicobar project is not costless. It imposes ecological costs and concerns on dealing with tribals. But serious countries do not shy away from making hard choices just because they are hard. India's geography gives India a rare opportunity to  sit astride major maritime corridors. The project gives India an opportunity to provide a major transhipment hub which is Malacca facing and can become a major logistics hub. It can reduce our reliance on foreign ports, support the bay of bengal region and help in providing humanitarian response. It helps secure our economic security and help deter our adversaries in case of any misadventure.

The right answer is not ecological veto or unbridled development. It is strategic development with enforceable limits. Land rights, ecological safegaurds, phased development with clear accountability. 

I believe India has the capacity to do all of the above and hence I support the project.